A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
